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OSINT Situation
Assessments

We reconstruct drone and counter-drone developments from open sources alone: what flew, what it hit, what stopped it, and what it means for detection. From the team building DroSonic passive acoustic sensing.

16 reportsOpen-sourceUpdated Oct 2026C-UAS · Acoustic

All reports

OCTOBER 2026 · Prisons · Acoustic Detection · Counter-UAS

Hearing the Drop

Drones now deliver drugs, phones and weapons into prisons thousands of times a year. New research shows a microphone can tell the moment the package falls.

Subject Drone contraband deliveries into prisons and acoustic detection of the drop  ·  Verdict Detection of the drop itself is possible; the method is promising but proven only in small trials

OCTOBER 2026 · Electronic Warfare · Fibre-Optic Drones · Counter-UAS

When Jamming Stops Working

Jammers were the first answer to small drones. Fibre-optic cable, mobile-network control and onboard autonomy are taking that answer away.

Subject The limits of electronic warfare against small drones  ·  Verdict Jamming still matters, but defences that depend on it alone now have predictable holes

OCTOBER 2026 · Military Bases · NATO · Counter-UAS

Watching the Bases

Drones now fly over U.S. bases once or twice a day and probe NATO nuclear sites. Detection has improved; stopping them still lags.

Subject Drone incursions over military installations, 2023–2026  ·  Verdict Detection is improving; tracking, identification and safe defeat are the gaps

OCTOBER 2026 · Border Security · United States · Counter-UAS

Thirty-Four Thousand Flights

CBP logged nearly 35,000 drone flights near the Mexico border in a year. Seeing them, not stopping them, is the hard part.

Subject Cartel drone use at the U.S.-Mexico border  ·  Verdict Tens of thousands of flights a year; low, small and cheap, they sit in the gaps between towers and patrols

OCTOBER 2026 · Law and Policy · United States · Counter-UAS

Allowed to Listen, Not to Shoot

The SAFER SKIES Act gives U.S. police counter-drone powers. Stopping drones stays with certified agencies; how you detect one still matters.

Subject U.S. counter-drone authorities after the SAFER SKIES Act  ·  Verdict Mitigation stays with certified government agencies; passive detection is the most open part of the chain

OCTOBER 2026 · Airports · Critical Infrastructure · Counter-UAS

Closed on a Sighting

Airports keep closing on drone reports they can neither confirm nor rule out. From Gatwick to Leipzig, the gap is detection.

Subject Drone disruption at airports, 2018–2026  ·  Verdict Airports close because they cannot confirm or locate drones; detection, not defeat, is the gap

OCTOBER 2026 · Acoustic Detection · Counter-UAS · Explainer

What a Microphone Can Hear

Acoustic sensors detect drones by the sound they can't switch off. How they work, how far they hear, and where they beat radar and RF.

Subject How passive acoustic drone detection works, and its limits  ·  Verdict A short-range, cheap, passive layer that hears what radio detectors cannot

SEPTEMBER 2026 · Air Defence Economics · Counter-UAS · Ukraine

The Price of a Kill

A $35,000 drone can cost a defender a $4 million missile. Cheap killers exist, but they only work if something cheap tells them where to shoot.

Subject The cost exchange between attack drones and air defence  ·  Verdict Cheap sensors are what make cheap interceptors usable

Series · 5 parts · read in order

Radar vs Small Drones

Why small drones are such a hard target for radar, in five weekly parts that build on each other. Range, echo size, terrain, motion and false alarms, from first principles.

Start with Part 1 →

Part 1 of 5 · AUGUST 2026 · Radar · Counter-UAS · Explainer

The Fourth-Root Problem

Radar range grows only with the fourth root of target size. Against a bird-sized drone, a radar loses most of its reach.

Subject Radar basics, and why drone size hits range so hard  ·  Verdict Against a 0.01 m² drone, a radar keeps about a third of the range it has against a person

Part 2 of 5 · SEPTEMBER 2026 · Radar · Counter-UAS · Explainer

An Echo the Size of a Bird

A quadcopter returns about as much radar energy as a bird. Plastic, size and shape keep its echo small and erratic.

Subject Radar cross section of small drones  ·  Verdict Small drones measure 0.01–0.03 m² at X-band, the same class as a bird

Part 3 of 5 · SEPTEMBER 2026 · Radar · Counter-UAS · Explainer

Under the Horizon

The Earth's curve, hills and ground echoes all hide low drones from radar. Low flight is the cheapest stealth there is.

Subject Radar horizon, terrain masking, ground clutter and multipath  ·  Verdict A radar on a 10 m mast cannot see a drone at 10 m beyond about 26 km, and terrain usually cuts that far shorter

Part 4 of 5 · SEPTEMBER 2026 · Radar · Counter-UAS · Explainer

The Rotor's Fingerprint

Spinning rotors give drones a radar fingerprint birds lack. A hovering drone can still vanish into the clutter filter.

Subject Doppler and micro-Doppler radar against drones  ·  Verdict Rotor micro-Doppler separates drones from birds, but its echo is 20–40 dB weaker than the body's

Part 5 of 5 · SEPTEMBER 2026 · Radar · Counter-UAS · Explainer

Is It a Bird?

Set a radar's bar low and birds flood the screen; set it high and drones slip through. Layered sensing is the way out.

Subject Detection thresholds, false alarms, birds, and layered sensing  ·  Verdict No radar threshold separates bird-sized drones from birds alone; fusing sensors does

AUGUST 2026 · Fibre-Optic Drones · Acoustic Detection · Ukraine

When the Detector Stays Silent

RSF's frontline safety guide exposes a gap. Fibre-optic FPVs beat every drone detector a reporter can carry, and only sound is left.

Subject Personal drone protection for frontline journalists  ·  Verdict RF and video detectors miss fibre-optic FPVs; sound is the last warning

AUGUST 2026 · Acoustic Detection · Ukraine · Counter-UAS

Listening to the Sky

Ukraine rebuilt a century-old idea, listening for aircraft, with thousands of cheap microphones. How it works, where it fails, and how the U.S. could use it.

Subject Acoustic drone detection, 1915 to 2026  ·  Confidence moderate / network size and costs vary by source

AUGUST 2026 · Acoustic Detection · Threat Families · Ukraine

Every Drone Has a Voice

Radar sorts drones by size, radio detectors by their links. A microphone sorts them by what turns the propeller, into five families with five warning times.

Subject Sorting threat drones by how they sound  ·  Verdict Five propulsion families; the jet family halves the warning time